Summary
- Revolving credit usage increases minimally.
- Nonrevolving credit growth picks up.
Consumer credit outstanding rose $6.3 billion (2.3% y/y) during March after a $15.0 billion February rise, revised from $14.1 billion. These figures compare to an $18.4 billion gain during January. A $15.3 billion rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to disposable personal income of 24.3% in March compared to 24.4% in February. It remained below the December 2022 high of 25.4%.
Revolving credit outstanding, which includes credit cards, edged $0.16 billion higher (7.8% y/y) in March after a $10.7 billion increase in February and an $8.1 billion January rise. It was the smallest increase since falling $1.3 billion in April 2021. Borrowing at banks rose 8.7% y/y, but finance company loans fell 7.0% y/y. Credit union loans increased 7.6% y/y.
Nonrevolving credit balances increased $6.1 billion (0.5% y/y) in March following a $4.3 billion February gain and a $10.3 billion January increase. Borrowing at banks fell 2.7% y/y, while finance company loans grew 7.7% y/y. Credit unions loans increased 1.3% y/y but federal government loans eased 0.9% y/y. The total of nonrevolving credit includes secured and unsecured credit for big-ticket items, such as autos, mobile homes, trailers, durable goods and vacations.
The value of student loans outstanding declined 1.3% y/y in Q1’24, while motor vehicle loans increased 2.6% y/y in Q1’24.
The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the AS1REPA database.
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