Haver Resources
May 23

U.S. New Home Sales Surge in April; Prices Edge Higher

Summary
  • Sales rise to highest level in three years.
  • Gains in sales are logged in most of the country.
  • Supply of new homes falls again.

Despite higher mortgage rates, sales of new single-family home sales increased last month. In April, sales jumped 10.9% (3.3% y/y) to 743,000 (SAAR) after increasing 2.6% to 670,000 during March (revised from 724,000). February sales fell 1.4% to 653,000, revised from 674,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Data back to January 2019 were revised. It was the highest sales level since February 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 698,000 during April. The sales gain occurred as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to an average 6.73% from 6.65% in March, according to Freddie Mac. It compares to a low of 6.18% averaged in September of last year.

By region, new home sales varied across the country last month. Sales of new homes in the Midwest rose 35.5% (1.2% y/y) to 84,000, after declining 7.5% during March. In the South, new home sales increased 11.7% (6.5% y/y) to 478,000, following a 4.9% March rise. Sales of new homes in the West increased 3.3% (1.3% y/y) to 158,000, after rising 6.3% in March. To the downside, new home sales in the Northeast declined 14.8% (-25.8% y/y) to 23,000 in April, after falling 20.6% in March.

The median sales price of a new home rose 0.9% (2.0% y/y) to $407,200 (NSA) in April after falling 2.1% to $403,700 in March. The average sales price of a new home rose 3.7% (3.6% y/y) to $518,400 in April, following a 1.4% March increase. The average price was 4.2% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market eased 0.6% (+8.6% y/y) to 504,000 (SA) in April, after a 1.2% March increase. The seasonally adjusted months’ supply of new homes for sale fell to 8.1 months in April after easing to 9.1 months in March. The latest reading remained above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market held steady at 3.0 months in April, up from a June 2024 low of 2.1 months. It remained the highest level since April 2022. The latest number stood well above its record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022, but remained below a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver’s USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.

The Effects of Tariffs on Inflation and Production Costs from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.

About The Author

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Thomas J. Moeller

Haver Analytics is pleased to bring Thomas J. Moeller’s commentaries on the state of the U.S. economy to its clients.

Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters’ Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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