Haver Resources
Nov 08

U.S. Housing Affordability Index Surges in September

Summary
  • Home prices slip & mortgage rates decline.
  • Median income improves.
  • Affordability increases throughout the country.

The National Association of Realtors’ Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (HAI) increased 6.5% (13.3% y/y) in September to 105.5 after rising 5.7% to 99.1 in August and 2.4% to 93.8 in July. These increases followed five straight months of decline. The level of home affordability has risen 17.4% from its low of 89.9 in October 2023. It remains 41.1% below the high of 179.2 in April 2020.

The rise in affordability reflected a 2.6% decline (+2.9% y/y) in the median price of an existing single-family home to $409,000. This followed two straight monthly declines from the record $432,900 in June. The price weakening accompanied a drop in the average mortgage rate to 6.26% from 6.58% in August, down from a 7.14% May high. It remained up sharply from the December 2020 low of 2.73%. The declines lowered the principal & interest payment by 5.7% (-7.3% y/y) to $2,017 per month. That was well above the most recent low of $984 in February 2020. Monthly mortgage payments averaged 23.7% of income during September versus 25.2% in August. They remained up from a recent low of 14.0% in April 2020.

The decline in housing costs was accompanied by improvement in median family income. It increased 0.3% in September (5.0% y/y) to a record $102,136 after rising 0.2% in August and 0.4% in July.

Housing affordability increased across the country in September. The index increased 7.0% (11.0% y/y) to 135.6 in the Midwest, remaining the most affordable region of the country to live. In the South, the index rose 5.0% (16.0% y/y) to 109.3 and the affordability index in the Northeast rose 12.3% (8.6% y/y) to 98.7. In the West, where homes are the least affordable, the index rose 4.6% (15.0% y/y) to 74.3 in September.

The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. The HAI had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990 and reached its all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013; since then, it fell below 100 for the first time in June 2022 (98.8).

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver’s REALTOR database. Median home sales prices are also available in USECON. Higher frequency interest rate data are found in SURVEYS, WEEKLY, and DAILY.

About The Author

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Thomas J. Moeller

Haver Analytics is pleased to bring Thomas J. Moeller’s commentaries on the state of the U.S. economy to its clients.

Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters’ Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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