Haver Resources
Mar 27

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in February to $147.9 Billion after January’s Record High

Summary
  • First narrowing in goods trade deficit since October.
  • Exports rise 4.1% m/m, up for the third month in four, led by a 12.7% rebound in auto exports.
  • Imports fall 0.2% m/m after three straight m/m rises, led by a 4.9% drop in imports of industrial supplies & materials.

The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $147.91 billion in February after widening to a record $155.57 billion in January, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The February reading was the first narrowing in the goods trade deficit since October but still much larger than a $92.31 billion shortfall in February 2024. A deficit of $135.0 billion for February had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a high of $120.72 billion in March 2022. In Q4’24, the goods trade deficit widened to $324.23 billion, the largest since Q1’22, after rising to $307.39 billion in Q3’24; the monthly deficit averaged $108.08 billion in Q4’24, the biggest since Q1’22, up from an average of $102.46 billion in Q3’24. In real terms, the goods trade deficit added 0.24%-point to real GDP growth in Q4’24 after having subtracted 0.44%-point in Q3’24.

Total goods exports rose 4.1% m/m (2.5% y/y) to $178.60 billion in February, the third monthly rise in four months, on top of a 1.6% gain in January. Nevertheless, exports had fallen 1.5% since a July 2022 high. The rise in exports in February reflected exports m/m increases of 12.7% (0.7% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 4.9% (-2.5% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 4.8% (12.2% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 2.8% (4.1% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos. To the downside, exports for the following end-use categories declined m/m in February: other goods (-5.4%; +3.9% y/y) and foods, feeds & beverages (-2.9%; -12.0% y/y).

Total goods imports fell 0.2% m/m (+22.5% y/y) to $326.51 billion in February, the first m/m fall since October, following a 12.5% jump (the largest m/m increase since September 1985) to a record $327.14 billion in January. However, imports had risen 12.9% since a March 2022 high. The fall in imports in February reflected m/m drops of 4.9% (+56.1% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials and 2.1% (+7.9% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages. To the upside, imports for the following end-use categories increased m/m in February: other goods (6.1%; 15.7% y/y), nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (2.8%; 24.3% y/y), automotive vehicles & parts (1.2%; -8.5% y/y), and capital goods excluding autos (1.0%; 18.1% y/y).

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver’s USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.

About The Author

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Winnie Tapasanun

Haver Analytics is pleased to bring Winnie Tapasanun’s commentaries on the state of the U.S. economy to its clients. Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has almost 20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations.

Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia.

Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (almost 30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.

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