U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall in September

• Transportation orders decline with falloff in aircraft orders; excluding transportation, orders rise modestly.
• Shipments ease for second month. Outside of transportation, shipments rise slightly.
• Unfilled orders rise negligibly for third straight month while inventories slip.

New orders for durable goods declined 0.8% (-2.1% y/y) during September after falling by the same amount in August, revised from no change. Orders rose a little-revised 9.8% in July, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.7% decline last month. The decline in orders reflected a 3.1% drop (-7.9% y/y) in orders for transportation equipment after they were off 3.4% in August. Orders outside the transportation sector rose 0.4% (1.1% y/y) in September after increasing 0.6% in August.

Last month’s weakness in transportation orders reflected fewer aircraft & parts bookings. They fell 22.9% due to a 22.7% decline in nondefense aircraft orders. Defense sector aircraft orders fell 3.2%. Motor vehicle & parts orders rose 1.1% (0.1% y/y) after edging 0.1% lower in August. Elsewhere, primary metals orders rose 0.5% (0.9% y/y) while fabricated metals orders jumped 2.1% (3.2% y/y). Machinery orders slipped 0.2% (-0.7% y/y), the third month of slight decline, while computer & electronics fell 0.3% (+1.4% y/y) following a 0.7% rise. Electrical equipment orders were little changed (1.4% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. Orders for other durable goods rose 0.2% (0.7% y/y) following a 0.3% August increase.

Capital goods orders declined 2.8% in September (-6.3% y/y) after falling 2.6% in August. Nondefense capital goods orders declined 4.5% (-13.1% y/y) after a 4.4% decline while nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.5% (0.1% y/y) after easing 0.3% in August. Defense capital goods orders jumped 6.4% and by one-half y/y, following an 8.4% increase.

Shipments from all manufacturing industries eased 0.4% (+0.2% y/y) during September after falling 0.7% in August. Durable goods shipments fell 0.6% (+1.6% y/y) last month, the same as in August. Transportation product shipments fell 2.4% (+4.3% y/y) after a 2.3% decline. Shipments excluding the transportation sector rose 0.3% both m/m and y/y after rising 0.2% in August. Machinery shipments held steady (-0.4% y/y) after rising 0.4% while computer & equipment shipments improved 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) after holding steady in August. Electrical equipment & appliance shipments rose 0.9% (1.3% y/y) following a 0.5% increase. Nondurable goods shipments fell 0.2% (-1.1% y/y) after falling 0.7% in August.

Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.2% (3.1% y/y) in September for the third straight month. Unfilled orders in transportation sector rose 0.1% (5.0% y/y) after rising 0.2% in August. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.2% (-0.2% y/y), the same as they did in August. Unfilled orders for durable goods less transportation rose 0.2% (-0.2% y/y) and have been trending sideways since 2022.

Inventories of all manufactured products eased 0.2% in September (+0.2% y/y) after a 0.1% August rise. Durable goods inventories slipped 0.2% (+0.9% y/y) after holding roughly three straight months. Nondurable goods inventories slipped 0.1% (-0.9% y/y) after rising 0.2% in August, though petroleum inventories fell 1.4% (-6.2% y/y in September after rising 0.4% in August.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.