Haver Resources
May 09

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Movement Diverges in Latest Four Weeks

Summary
  • Metals prices are mixed.
  • Crude oil prices fall sharply.
  • Textile prices ease.

The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 0.6% (-3.6% y/y) during the four weeks ended May 9, 2025. The improvement followed sharp declines in April.

Miscellaneous group prices increased 2.4% (5.9% y/y) over the last four weeks. Natural rubber price soared 13.9% (11.7% y/y). The price of tallow (used in the soap industry) rose 10.6% (41.3% y/y) in four weeks but the cost of framing lumber declined 5.6%, but rose 7.3% y/y.

Prices in the Metals group edged 0.2% higher (-7.3% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Variation in pricing was wide. Copper scrap prices rose 7.4% (-3.3% y/y) while lead costs rose 4.0% in four weeks (-11.1% y/y). The cost of aluminum increased 2.3% in four weeks, off 4.4% y/y. Working lower, the cost of steel scrap declined 8.1% (-11.6% y/) in four weeks while tin prices followed with a 4.9% decline (-2.9% y/y). Zinc prices eased 0.7% in four weeks and declined 10.3% y/y.

Crude Oil & Benzene group prices edged 0.1% higher (-19.4% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil weakened 4.0% to $58.50 per barrel and was 25.6% lower y/y. The cost of the petrol-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, strengthened 8.5% (-41.8% y/y) in the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index rose 0.9% (-2.1% y/y) during the last four weeks.

Textile group prices edged 0.9% lower (-0.5% y/y) during the last four weeks. Burlap costs declined 14.3% (+7.4% y/y) but the cost of cotton rose 4.5% (-7.7% y/y) over four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver’s DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.

About The Author

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Thomas J. Moeller

Haver Analytics is pleased to bring Thomas J. Moeller’s commentaries on the state of the U.S. economy to its clients.

Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters’ Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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