Haver Resources
Apr 21

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Decline Sharply in Latest Four Weeks

Summary
  • Metals prices weaken broadly.
  • Lumber & rubber prices fall.
  • Crude oil prices remain soft.

The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) weakened 4.2% (-5.1% y/y) during the four weeks ended April 18, 2025. The decline has picked up steam since March.

Prices in the Metals group declined 9.1% (-6.9% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Price weakness was broad-based, led by a 13.1% (-7.5% y/y) decline in the cost of aluminum. Tin prices followed with a 12.3% four-week decline (-6.1% y/y) while zinc prices were off 11.5% (-7.0% y/y) in four weeks. The price of lead declined 8.4% (-11.5% y/y) over the last four weeks. Copper scrap costs declined 7.1% (-3.3% y/y) while the price of steel scrap weakened 3.6% (-6.7% y/y) in four weeks.

Miscellaneous group prices fell 3.7% (+1.0% y/y) during the last four weeks. Framing lumber costs declined 13.2% (+8.8% y/y) while natural rubber costs weakened 11.4% (-9.2% y/y) in four weeks. The price of tallow (used in the soap industry) offset these declines with a 5.9% (24.8% y/y) four-week rise.

Prices in the Crude Oil & Benzene group declined 3.6% (-19.3% y/y) in four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil slumped 7.5% to $62.32 per barrel and stood 26.1% lower y/y. The cost of the petrol-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, weakened 3.5% (-40.6% y/y) in the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index fell 4.0% (-3.7% y/y) during the last four weeks.

Textile group prices edged 0.3% higher (-1.3% y/y) during the last four weeks. Burlap costs rose 5.9% (16.1% y/y) but the cost of cotton fell 1.3% (-16.2% y/y) in the latest four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver’s DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.

About The Author

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Thomas J. Moeller

Haver Analytics is pleased to bring Thomas J. Moeller’s commentaries on the state of the U.S. economy to its clients.

Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters’ Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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