Haver Resources
Dec 17

U.S IP Unexpectedly Fell Again in November

Summary
  • Total industrial production fell 0.1% m/m, the fourth monthly decline in the past five months.
  • Manufacturing output increased 0.2% m/m while mining fell 0.9% and utilities output slumped 1.3%.
  • Small downward revision to October.
  • A modest increase had been expected for November.

Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.1% m/m (-0.9% y/y) in November after a downwardly revised 0.4% monthly decline in October (previously 0.3% m/m). This was the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.3% m/m increase. Manufacturing output increased 0.2% m/m (-1.0% y/y), the first monthly gain in three months, led by a 3.5% m/m jump in the production of motor vehicles and parts. Mining output fell 0.9% m/m (-1.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline. The 0.3% monthly increase previously reported for October was revised down to a 0.1% m/m decline. Utilities output slumped 1.3% m/m (+0.1% y/y) in November, offsetting the 1.3% m/m increase in October, which was revised up from 0.7%.

In the manufacturing sector, output of durables goods increased 0.7% m/m (-2.2% y/y) in November following a 1.6% monthly decline in October. In addition to the jump in motor vehicle production, output of wood products increased 1.0% m/m, production of nonmetallic metal products rose 1.3% m/m, machinery output rose a solid 2.1% m/m, and furniture production increased 2.0%. By contrast, production of aerospace and other transportation equipment fell 2.6% m/m, production of fabricated metal products declined 0.6% m/m, and production of computers and electronic products dipped 0.3% m/m. Output of nondurable goods fell 0.3% m/m (+0.5% y/y) in November, the fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Output of apparel and leather goods slumped 2.1% m/m and petroleum production fell 1.6% m/m.

Output of selected high-technology industries increased 0.3% m/m (+7.4% y/y) in November, a slowdown from an 0.8% monthly gain in October. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries increased 0.2% m/m, the first monthly increase in the past three months. Manufacturing output excluding the jump in motor vehicle production fell 0.1% m/m in November, the third consecutive monthly decline. Manufacturing output excluding production of motor vehicles and selected high-tech industries also fell 0.1% m/m in November, the third consecutive monthly decline.

The 1.3% monthly decline in utilities production reflected a 1.2% m/m drop in electric power generation and a 2.3% m/m slump in natural gas distribution, the fourth monthly decline in the past five months.

Capacity utilization stepped down to 76.8% in November, a rate that is 2.9%-points below its long-run (1972–2023) average and the lowest rate since April 2021, from a downwardly revised 77.0% in October (previously 77.1%). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had estimated an increase to 77.3%. In the manufacturing sector, utilization was 76.0%, up marginally from 75.9% in October, which was revised down from 76.2%.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s USECON database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.

About The Author

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Sandy Batten

Haver Analytics is pleased to bring Sandy Batten’s commentaries on the state of the U.S. economy to its clients.

Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia.

Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan.

In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association.

Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.

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