Summary
- Revolving credit outstanding declines.
- Nonrevolving credit strength moderates.
Consumer credit outstanding increased $8.9 billion (2.3% y/y) in August after rising $26.6 billion in July, revised from $25.5 billion and increasing $3.2 billion in June, revised from $5.2 billion. A $12.0 billion increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to disposable personal income was unchanged at 23.4% in August, a ratio that has drifted lower the last two years.
Revolving credit outstanding, which includes credit cards, declined $1.3 billion in August (+5.4% y/y) following a $10.6 billion July increase and a $0.5 billion June decline. Revolving credit outstanding held by depository institutions rose 5.9% y/y, down from a high of 17.0% y/y growth in August 2022. Revolving credit held by finance companies fell 7.8% y/y while revolving credit held by credit unions rose a diminished 5.9% y/y in August.
Nonrevolving credit outstanding increased $10.3 billion (1.2% y/y) in August after increasing $16.0 billion in July and rising $3.7 billion in June. Nonrevolving credit held by banks fell 1.8% y/y, down from an 11.0% y/y high in April 2022 while finance company nonrevolving credit rose 3.3% y/y, half the increase early this year. Credit union nonrevolving balances declined 0.9% y/y in August, off from 20.3% y/y growth in January 2023. Federal government balances surged 3.2% y/y to $1.50 trillion in August.
The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
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