Haver Resources
Feb 14

U.S. Retail Sales Retreat in January

Summary
  • Decline is broad-based.
  • Weakness is led by lower vehicle sales.
  • Overall decline is muted by higher gasoline spending.

Total retail sales weakened 0.9% (+4.2% y/y) during January after rising 0.7% in December, revised from 0.4% according to the U.S Census Bureau. November sales rose 0.7%, revised from 0.8%. The decline followed four consecutive months of increase. Expectations had been for a 0.1% easing in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales fell 0.4% (+3.7% y/y) in January after a 0.7% increase in December, revised from 0.4%. A 0.3% gain had been expected for January.

Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell 2.8% (+6.4% y/y) last month after four straight monthly increases. The decline compared to a 7.7% drop (+5.1% y/y) in unit light vehicle sales which followed a 2.1% December rise. Spending at gasoline stations rose 0.9% (2.0% y/y) after increasing 2.1% in December. The rise came as gasoline prices increased 3.2% m/m on average during January.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, fell 0.8% (+3.7% y/y) after rising 0.8% in December, revised from 0.7%. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts.

By category, nonstore retail sales fell 1.9% (+4.7% y/y) in January following a 0.6% December rise. Furniture & home furnishings store sales declined 1.7% (+3.7% y/y) and reversed December’s 1.9% gain. Electronics & appliance store sales weakened 0.7% (unchanged y/y) after a 0.1% December uptick. Building materials & garden equipment store ales declined 1.3% (+0.7% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Clothing & accessory store sales were off 1.2% (+1.4% y/y) after rising 1.1% in December. Sporting goods, hobby & book shop sales fell 4.6% (-4.1% y/y) after rising 3.2%. Working 0.5% higher (3.7% y/y) were sales at general merchandise stores after four straight months of modest increase. Within that category, department store sales improved 0.8% (-1.4% y/y) last month following a 0.2% rise.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales fell 0.3% (+4.9% y/y) in January following a 0.2% increase in December. Food & beverage store sales eased 0.1% (+3.8% y/y) after strengthening 1.0% during December.

Despite poor weather around the country, restaurant & drinking place sales rose 0.9% (5.4% y/y) last month following a 0.1% December uptick and moderate increases in each of the prior five months.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economic Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.

About The Author

Avatar photo

Thomas J. Moeller

Haver Analytics is pleased to bring Thomas J. Moeller’s commentaries on the state of the U.S. economy to its clients.

Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters’ Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

See author's posts