Haver Resources
Aug 26

U.S. Aircraft Orders Raise Durable Goods Manufacturing Orders in July

Summary
  • Aircraft orders rebound from a marginal amount in June
  • Other durable goods industries saw orders decrease in July
  • Only fabricated metal products had a visible advance in July new orders
  • Shipments, in contrast, were strong in July

New orders for durable goods jumped 9.9% in July following a drop of 6.9% in June. The July jump was more than accounted for by a surge in aircraft orders, which rebounded from a very small amount in June of just $638 million, seasonally adjusted. In July, they were $28.9 billion. Other orders were $260.7 billion in July after $262.9 billion in June. The July increase in total durable goods orders was larger than the Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected, but the survey did look for a sizable increase of 4.5%.

Among durable goods industries other than aircraft, new orders fell 0.8% in July after a 0.2% increase in June. Orders for motor vehicles had the largest percentage decline in July, 2.6%, after a 0.7% decline in June. Orders for primary metals were down 0.9% after falling 0.5% in June. Orders for computers were down 0.7% after a 0.1% increase in June. Electrical equipment orders fell 0.4% after rising 0.8% in June. “Other” durable goods industries reported orders down marginally in July after decreasing 0.4% in June, and orders for machinery were basically unchanged in July after a 1.0% increase in June. In contrast, orders for fabricated metal products increased 0.2% after being unchanged in June.

Capital goods orders edged up just 0.1% in July, reversing a 0.1% decrease in June. Excluding aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders increased 0.2% last month after a 0.1% rise in June. Defense capital goods orders fell 0.4% in July after a relatively strong 0.7% advance in June.

Shipments of durable goods were strong in July, up 1.0%, after a 0.6% increase in June, and unfilled orders were up 0.2% last month after declining 1.4% in June. Inventories were up 0.1% in July, reversing a June decrease of 0.1%.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.

About The Author

Carol Stone, CBE

Haver Analytics is pleased to bring Carol Stone’s commentaries on the state of the U.S. economy to its clients.

Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo.

At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm.

During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU’s Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.

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