Haver Resources

May 20
May 19
May 17

U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April

  Solid increase in all three major categories. Manufacturing increase led by motor vehicles. Capacity utilization strengthens to highest level since December 2018. Industrial production increased 1.1% (6.4% y/y) in April following an unrevised 0.9% gain in March. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey....

read more →
May 16

Webinar: Three Themes and Some Flows

Our latest research webinar, "Three Themes and Some Flows" is now available for on-demand viewing. Senior economist Andy Cates along with Steve Muzzlewhite, the global head of customer solutions at EPFR, discuss three global macro themes; the crisis in Ukraine, recession risks which link to stagflation stress, and sub-merging emerging markets. Steve...

read more →
May 12

U.S. Producer Price Inflation Moderates in April

 Services prices hold steady. Core goods prices remain strong. Energy & food prices soar again. The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased 0.5% during April following a record 1.6% increase during March. The y/y increase in the PPI overall moderated slightly to 11.0%. A 0.6% increase had been expected...

read more →
May 11
May 10

U.S. Energy Prices Strengthen

Gasoline prices jump to record high. Crude oil prices increase sharply. Natural gas prices rise to highest level since February 2021. Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.33 per gallon in the week ended May 9 (46.2% y/y) after rising to $4.18 per gallon the prior week. Haver Analytics adjusts the...

read more →
May 10

U.S. Small Business Optimism Remains Weak

Optimism holds at lowest level since April 2020. Expectations of better business conditions in next six months fall to another all-time low. Pricing power nears record high. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index held steady at 93.2 in April following three consecutive monthly declines. In April, five of the index's...

read more →
May 08

Webinar: Monitoring Stagflation Risks

Our latest research webinar, "Monitoring Stagflation Risks" is now available for on-demand viewing. Senior economist Andy Cates re-examines the stagflation risks brought up in our previous webinar and goes over some of the key indicators that signal whether or not we should expect a period of stagflation in the near...

read more →
May 06

U.S. Job Market Strength Continues in April

Employment gains stabilize m/m, but remain robust overall. Hourly earnings growth stays strong y/y. Jobless rate steadies near 50-year low. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 428,000 (4.6% y/y) during April, the same as in March which was revised from 431,000. A 390,000 April gain had been expected in the Action Economics...

read more →
May 05
May 03
May 03
May 02

China’s PMIs Weaken Sharply

  China continues to post weak and weakening PMI numbers in April. The manufacturing index fell to 47.4 in April from 49.5 in March. This marks the second month in a row that the manufacturing index is below 50, indicating that manufacturing activity is contracting in China. China's nonmanufacturing index...

read more →
May 02

U.S. Employment Costs Accelerate in Q1’22

Wage and salaries improve. Benefits skyrocket. The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers increased 1.4% in Q1'22 after rising 1.0% in 4Q'21. The 4.5% y/y increase has almost doubled since the end of 2020. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.1% quarterly gain. The overall increase was driven...

read more →
Apr 29

U.S. GDP Declines Unexpectedly in Q1’22

Int'l trade deficit subtracts near-record from total GDP. Inventory decumulation is moderate. Domestic demand picks up. U.S. real GDP contracted by 1.4% (SAAR) last quarter following an unrevised 6.9% rise during Q4'21. It was the only quarter of negative growth since the end of the recession in Q2'20. The Action...

read more →
Apr 28

Viewpoints: Some Global Inflation Perspectives

Central bankers would be the first to admit that domestic monetary policy is a blunt tool for steering economic growth and inflation. Alan Greenspan famously observed that setting policy can be like driving a car while looking in the rear-view mirror. He noted too that arriving sufficiently early “in order...

read more →
Apr 27

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall for Seventh Straight Week

Largest weekly decline since mid-February. Meaningful declines in both purchase and refinancing applications. Mortgage interest rates post significant weekly increases with 30-year rate rising to highest since mid-2009. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index declined 8.3% w/w (-51.4% y/y) in the week ended April 22, their seventh consecutive weekly...

read more →
Apr 27
Apr 26

U.S. Energy Prices Increase

Gasoline prices rebound. Crude oil prices continue to strengthen. Natural gas prices ease. Retail gasoline prices rose to $4.11 gallon in the week ended April 25 (43.0% y/y) from $4.07 per gallon the prior week. The gain followed five straight weeks of decline. Prices set a record $4.32 per gallon...

read more →
Apr 26

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slips in April

Present situation & expectations are little changed m/m. Expectations for employment deteriorates. Expectations for inflation dip. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index during April weakened 0.3% (-8.7% y/y) to 107.3 from 107.6, revised from 107.2. A reading of 107.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Present...

read more →
Apr 22

Viewpoints: Some Techno-Optimism

The headlines remain full of negative news about the conflict in Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis and lingering COVID-related issues not least in China. These factors are derailing consumer and business confidence on the one hand but aggravating inflation tensions on the other. And central banks are accordingly facing an acute...

read more →
Apr 12

Webinar: Is Stagflation Back?

Our latest research webinar, "Is Stagflation Back" is now available for on-demand viewing. Senior Economists Sandy Batten and Andy Cates compare the current economic environment with that of the stagflationary 1970s to ascertain if the global economy is currently experiencing stagflation. They conclude that it is not and provide some...

read more →
Apr 06
Mar 25

Viewpoints: Does the Consensus Add Up?

Economic forecasters have been paring back their expectations for households' living standards for several months now. Soaring prices for energy and food combined with a fading impulse from COVID-related fiscal support together - more recently - with higher borrowing costs have severely derailed households' disposable income growth in most major...

read more →
Mar 17

Viewpoints: Tracking Stagflation

How do we know if the world economy is confronting a stagflation scenario? Persistent negative growth surprises combined with persistent positive inflation surprises is one answer. Defined in this way, the recent evolution of Citigroup’s growth and inflation surprise indices suggest we are close to - or even in the...

read more →
Mar 15

Viewpoints: Crumbs of Comfort in Productivity Trends

Figure 1: Average unit wage cost inflation in developed economies There is understandably much discussion at present about a cost-of-living crisis, stagflation strains and global recession risks. But are there any crumbs of comfort that suggest these risks are over-stated? There are, and they lie in the recent global dataflow...

read more →
Mar 11

Viewpoints: More Stressed and Under-confident

Figure 1: Latest sentix survey suggests incoming economic data could disappoint If geopolitical stress endures and food and energy prices continue to climb global recession risks will surely rise. The latest sentix survey, published earlier this week, certainly suggests growing alarm about this potential outcome amongst global investors. The forward...

read more →
Mar 08

Webinar: Geopolitical Stress and Secular Scars

Our latest research webinar, "Geopolitical stress and secular scars" is now available for on-demand viewing. Senior economist Andy Cates examines some of the key channels via which the current conflict in Ukraine are likely to exert a global economic impact. In addition he assess some of the longer-term secular shifts...

read more →
Mar 01
Mar 01
Dec 15

Upcoming Course Offerings: Machine Learning, R and Python

Haver Analytics, in collaboration with our partners at Clear Future, is announcing upcoming remote course offerings in Machine Learning, Python and R: Applied Time Series/R: May 9th - 20th - 9:00am - 11:30am ET Each course focuses on quantitative analysis, forecasting, and machine learning for all levels of professionals seeking...

read more →
Jul 23

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE INDICATORS

The Environmental, Social and Governance Indicators DLX Database (ESG) Focuses on broad environmental, social and governance indicators from annual reports that cover most countries and are compiled by a variety of international organizations, Universities and specialized research institutes. Why ESG Matters More investors are seeking accountability from corporations and government. ...

read more →
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May 20
May 19
May 17

U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April

  Solid increase in all three major categories. Manufacturing increase led by motor vehicles. Capacity utilization strengthens to highest level since December 2018. Industrial production increased 1.1% (6.4% y/y) in April following an unrevised 0.9% gain in March. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey....

read more →
May 12

U.S. Producer Price Inflation Moderates in April

 Services prices hold steady. Core goods prices remain strong. Energy & food prices soar again. The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased 0.5% during April following a record 1.6% increase during March. The y/y increase in the PPI overall moderated slightly to 11.0%. A 0.6% increase had been expected...

read more →
May 11
May 10

U.S. Energy Prices Strengthen

Gasoline prices jump to record high. Crude oil prices increase sharply. Natural gas prices rise to highest level since February 2021. Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.33 per gallon in the week ended May 9 (46.2% y/y) after rising to $4.18 per gallon the prior week. Haver Analytics adjusts the...

read more →
May 10

U.S. Small Business Optimism Remains Weak

Optimism holds at lowest level since April 2020. Expectations of better business conditions in next six months fall to another all-time low. Pricing power nears record high. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index held steady at 93.2 in April following three consecutive monthly declines. In April, five of the index's...

read more →
May 06

U.S. Job Market Strength Continues in April

Employment gains stabilize m/m, but remain robust overall. Hourly earnings growth stays strong y/y. Jobless rate steadies near 50-year low. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 428,000 (4.6% y/y) during April, the same as in March which was revised from 431,000. A 390,000 April gain had been expected in the Action Economics...

read more →
May 05
May 03
May 02

China’s PMIs Weaken Sharply

  China continues to post weak and weakening PMI numbers in April. The manufacturing index fell to 47.4 in April from 49.5 in March. This marks the second month in a row that the manufacturing index is below 50, indicating that manufacturing activity is contracting in China. China's nonmanufacturing index...

read more →
May 02

U.S. Employment Costs Accelerate in Q1’22

Wage and salaries improve. Benefits skyrocket. The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers increased 1.4% in Q1'22 after rising 1.0% in 4Q'21. The 4.5% y/y increase has almost doubled since the end of 2020. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.1% quarterly gain. The overall increase was driven...

read more →
Apr 29

U.S. GDP Declines Unexpectedly in Q1’22

Int'l trade deficit subtracts near-record from total GDP. Inventory decumulation is moderate. Domestic demand picks up. U.S. real GDP contracted by 1.4% (SAAR) last quarter following an unrevised 6.9% rise during Q4'21. It was the only quarter of negative growth since the end of the recession in Q2'20. The Action...

read more →
Apr 27

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall for Seventh Straight Week

Largest weekly decline since mid-February. Meaningful declines in both purchase and refinancing applications. Mortgage interest rates post significant weekly increases with 30-year rate rising to highest since mid-2009. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index declined 8.3% w/w (-51.4% y/y) in the week ended April 22, their seventh consecutive weekly...

read more →
Apr 27
Apr 26

U.S. Energy Prices Increase

Gasoline prices rebound. Crude oil prices continue to strengthen. Natural gas prices ease. Retail gasoline prices rose to $4.11 gallon in the week ended April 25 (43.0% y/y) from $4.07 per gallon the prior week. The gain followed five straight weeks of decline. Prices set a record $4.32 per gallon...

read more →
Apr 26

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slips in April

Present situation & expectations are little changed m/m. Expectations for employment deteriorates. Expectations for inflation dip. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index during April weakened 0.3% (-8.7% y/y) to 107.3 from 107.6, revised from 107.2. A reading of 107.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Present...

read more →
May 16

Webinar: Three Themes and Some Flows

Our latest research webinar, "Three Themes and Some Flows" is now available for on-demand viewing. Senior economist Andy Cates along with Steve Muzzlewhite, the global head of customer solutions at EPFR, discuss three global macro themes; the crisis in Ukraine, recession risks which link to stagflation stress, and sub-merging emerging markets. Steve...

read more →
May 08

Webinar: Monitoring Stagflation Risks

Our latest research webinar, "Monitoring Stagflation Risks" is now available for on-demand viewing. Senior economist Andy Cates re-examines the stagflation risks brought up in our previous webinar and goes over some of the key indicators that signal whether or not we should expect a period of stagflation in the near...

read more →
May 03
Apr 28

Viewpoints: Some Global Inflation Perspectives

Central bankers would be the first to admit that domestic monetary policy is a blunt tool for steering economic growth and inflation. Alan Greenspan famously observed that setting policy can be like driving a car while looking in the rear-view mirror. He noted too that arriving sufficiently early “in order...

read more →
Apr 22

Viewpoints: Some Techno-Optimism

The headlines remain full of negative news about the conflict in Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis and lingering COVID-related issues not least in China. These factors are derailing consumer and business confidence on the one hand but aggravating inflation tensions on the other. And central banks are accordingly facing an acute...

read more →
Apr 12

Webinar: Is Stagflation Back?

Our latest research webinar, "Is Stagflation Back" is now available for on-demand viewing. Senior Economists Sandy Batten and Andy Cates compare the current economic environment with that of the stagflationary 1970s to ascertain if the global economy is currently experiencing stagflation. They conclude that it is not and provide some...

read more →
Apr 06
Mar 25

Viewpoints: Does the Consensus Add Up?

Economic forecasters have been paring back their expectations for households' living standards for several months now. Soaring prices for energy and food combined with a fading impulse from COVID-related fiscal support together - more recently - with higher borrowing costs have severely derailed households' disposable income growth in most major...

read more →
Mar 17

Viewpoints: Tracking Stagflation

How do we know if the world economy is confronting a stagflation scenario? Persistent negative growth surprises combined with persistent positive inflation surprises is one answer. Defined in this way, the recent evolution of Citigroup’s growth and inflation surprise indices suggest we are close to - or even in the...

read more →
Mar 15

Viewpoints: Crumbs of Comfort in Productivity Trends

Figure 1: Average unit wage cost inflation in developed economies There is understandably much discussion at present about a cost-of-living crisis, stagflation strains and global recession risks. But are there any crumbs of comfort that suggest these risks are over-stated? There are, and they lie in the recent global dataflow...

read more →
Mar 11

Viewpoints: More Stressed and Under-confident

Figure 1: Latest sentix survey suggests incoming economic data could disappoint If geopolitical stress endures and food and energy prices continue to climb global recession risks will surely rise. The latest sentix survey, published earlier this week, certainly suggests growing alarm about this potential outcome amongst global investors. The forward...

read more →
Mar 08

Webinar: Geopolitical Stress and Secular Scars

Our latest research webinar, "Geopolitical stress and secular scars" is now available for on-demand viewing. Senior economist Andy Cates examines some of the key channels via which the current conflict in Ukraine are likely to exert a global economic impact. In addition he assess some of the longer-term secular shifts...

read more →
Mar 01
Mar 01
Dec 15

Upcoming Course Offerings: Machine Learning, R and Python

Haver Analytics, in collaboration with our partners at Clear Future, is announcing upcoming remote course offerings in Machine Learning, Python and R: Applied Time Series/R: May 9th - 20th - 9:00am - 11:30am ET Each course focuses on quantitative analysis, forecasting, and machine learning for all levels of professionals seeking...

read more →
Jul 23

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE INDICATORS

The Environmental, Social and Governance Indicators DLX Database (ESG) Focuses on broad environmental, social and governance indicators from annual reports that cover most countries and are compiled by a variety of international organizations, Universities and specialized research institutes. Why ESG Matters More investors are seeking accountability from corporations and government. ...

read more →

Training

Haver Analytics offers professional development courses for R, Python and Machine Learning. These programs focus on Big Data Analytics as well as traditional time series analysis and econometric modeling – aiding our clients in model building, variable testing, forecasting and more.  Participants improve by working through real world applications and practice examples using global data. Small class sizes foster close collaboration with our Partners from Clear Future.

Custom training manuals, annotated scripts and notebooks are provided along with certificates of completion. No prior experience is required.  All courses progress from introductory bootcamp through advanced modeling topics in economics, finance and machine learning.  All courses are digital and take place over a two-week period, in six sessions, all of which are 2.5 hours in duration. The sessions follow a Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule and accommodate multiple time zones.

Click Here to learn about upcoming courses

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