Summary PHSI +2.2% (+6.9% y/y) in November vs. +1.8% (+5.3% y/y) in October. Home sales up m/m in the South (5.2%), West (0.5%) and Midwest (0.4%) but down m/m in...
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Charts of the Week
Macro Pulse
The messaging from this week’s raft of economic data has painted an increasingly familiar picture of the global economic scene. Headline inflation is finally easing off its highs in large part thanks to ebbing energy prices. But last year’s high levels of inflation and the global trend toward tighter monetary policy that they sparked are now exacting a heavier toll on economic activity.
Energy, naturally
Investors have returned to focusing on several familiar themes so far this year including the resilience of the US economy, the implications of a new US administration, simmering geopolitical tensions, and the productivity potential of AI. The steep climb in global bond yields that’s unfolded over recent weeks additionally suggests that inflation concerns and debt sustainability issues have re-surfaced as well. In our charts this week we focus on:
·     US yields and growth surprises
·     Natural gas prices and US inflation
·     Consensus forecasts for policy rates
·     Euro area inflation and wage pressures
·     The US dollar and energy trade
·     Energy trade in selected major economies
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