Our latest research webinar featuring Haver Senior Economist, Sandy Batten, is now available for on-demand viewing.
With US GDP having declined 1.5% q/q at an annual rate in Q1 2022, the Federal Reserve embarking on what appears to be the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy in more than 30 years, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict offering a new threat to economic growth, financial markets are becoming increasingly more concerned that the US economy is either entering a recession or that one may be just around the corner. In this presentation, Senior Economist Sandy Batten provides a comprehensive list of coincident and leading recession indicators contained in Haver databases to gauge the recession risk currently facing the US economy. From a look at the coincident indicators, it is clear that the US economy is not currently in a recession. However, an analysis of the leading indicators reveals that near-term recession risk has risen markedly over the past couple of months. That makes it all the more important to carefully follow the indicators in the presentation for signs of any deterioration in the US economy or its outlook. Agenda
• The US economy is currently not in a recession notwithstanding the decline in Q1 2022 GDP, and the probability of one in the next 12 months currently appears low.
• However, the Fed is embarking on what may be the most aggressive tightening in 30 years, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is boosting food and energy prices further and thereby offering a new challenge to economic growth, and zero-COVID policies in China have exacerbated supply-chain problems.
• Consequently, US recession risks are clearly escalating.
• This webinar provides a set of leading recession indicators to monitor going forward for signs of any deterioration in the US economy or its outlook.
Duration: 25 minutes